LONDON — With devolved elections looming in Scotland and Wales, opposition parties across Britain are sharpening their attacks on Prime Minister James Starmer’s government, seizing on a string of policy reversals and internal disputes that critics have branded a governing “shambles” — a characterisation that strategists in Edinburgh and Cardiff say could prove decisive at the ballot box this spring.
The mood inside Starmer’s Downing Street operation has grown increasingly anxious since a bruising sequence of parliamentary setbacks in February and March left senior ministers contradicting one another on live broadcasts. A botched reshuffle announcement, quickly walked back within 48 hours, provided opponents with weeks of ammunition. Polling conducted in mid-April by the independent Meridian Research Group found that 54 percent of Scottish voters and 49 percent of Welsh voters rated the central government’s performance as “poor” or “very poor,” figures that opposition parties have rushed to publicise.
In Scotland, the Scottish Progressive Alliance has made Westminster dysfunction the centrepiece of its campaign, arguing that the chaos in London reinforces the case for greater autonomy. “Every day that passes, Starmer’s government hands us a new reason to make the argument,” SPA campaign director Fiona Galbraith told reporters in Glasgow on Friday. “Voters here are watching, and they are not impressed.” Polls show the SPA leading with 37 percent support, up four points since the turn of the year, while the Labour-aligned Northern Labour Party has slipped to 22 percent, its lowest recorded figure in the region since 2019.
The picture in Wales is more complicated. The Cymru Forward party, which governs the Senedd in a minority arrangement, is facing pressure from both its left and right flanks. Welsh First Minister Rhiannon Hughes has carefully distanced herself from London, issuing a pointed statement last week noting that “decisions made in Cardiff reflect Welsh priorities, not the preoccupations of Westminster.” Yet internal polling shared with this outlet suggests her party’s lead has narrowed to just three points — within the margin of error — as voters conflate national Labour fortunes with those of the devolved administration.
Political scientists say the dynamic illustrates a perennial risk for governing parties: that local contests become referendums on central government competence. “When there is a strong negative narrative about a prime minister, it bleeds downward,” said Professor Alistair Crompton of the University of Midland Cities, who studies devolved politics. “Parties that share a brand — even loosely — pay a price whether they deserve to or not.” He noted that historical data going back three electoral cycles shows a 6-to-9 point penalty for regionally affiliated parties when central government approval drops below 35 percent, a threshold Starmer’s administration crossed in February.
Inside Labour’s own ranks, there is barely concealed tension about whether the prime minister’s office is doing enough to help candidates in the nations. One senior party figure, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the situation bluntly: “The messaging operation is not working. We need to either fix it or give the devolved campaigns permission to run entirely independently.” A Downing Street spokesman declined to comment on internal discussions but said the government “remains committed to working with devolved governments to deliver for people across Scotland and Wales.”
Opposition strategists in both nations admit to a degree of mixed emotion — relishing the opportunity the national story presents, while fearing that voter anger could prove unpredictable and sweep in parties further to the fringes. In Scotland, two smaller insurgent movements have seen their combined polling numbers rise to 18 percent, cannibalising votes that might otherwise consolidate behind the SPA. In Wales, a newly formed rural-rights party is polling at 11 percent in western constituencies, threatening to split the anti-Labour vote in ways that could, paradoxically, save some Labour Senedd seats.
Elections in both nations are scheduled for the second week of June. With five weeks of campaigning remaining, strategists on all sides agree the race is volatile. “We have not seen polling numbers move this fast this late in a cycle since 2018,” said Meridian Research Group director Priya Sunderland. “Anything can happen, and probably will.” For Starmer, the coming weeks offer a chance at partial redemption — or the prospect of a double electoral blow that would further destabilise a government already struggling to find its footing.